10,000 simulated price paths over 180 days based on historical daily returns & volatility
Conviction Score Backtesting
Historical test: what happened to BTC after entering each conviction zone? The engine computes the technical conviction score for every day in the 2-year dataset, then measures forward returns from each zone.
Forward Returns by Conviction Zone
Average forward return after entering each zone (30d, 90d, 180d)
Zone
Score Range
Days In Zone
30d Fwd Return
90d Fwd Return
180d Fwd Return
Win Rate (90d)
Strategy Comparison: Buy the Dip vs. Always In
Hypothetical equity curves: "Only buy in Accumulation zones" vs. "Buy & Hold" vs. "Avoid Distribution zones"
Score Distribution Over Time
How the technical conviction score has moved across the 2-year dataset
Disclaimer: This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of all capital.